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Mar
18
Posted by Mark Clawson
I must admit that the mortgage market is getting very crazy and unpredictable. So do we need to be celebrating with a glass of wine and a nice dinner? You can be the judge.
Two weeks ago the thirty year fixed rate mortgage had a note rate of 5.875% and today it is 5.5%. This is good. However, the 3 Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage has gone from a note rate of 4% to 5.625%. This is not good. You can view all of todays conforming rates by clicking here.
My thinking is not nessarily supported in fact, however, I will give you my best read. Long term mortgage rates are pegged, somewhat, to long term Treasury Notes or Bonds. Short term rates don’t have such a mechanism at work. Bankers are having a hard time finding Wall Street investors for their ARM products and with little demand the rates are moving upward. I believe there is concern about home values in the short term. Prices are falling and there is concern about the borrower losing equity in their home. Without a pricing mechanism in place fear is coming into play.
For now, ARM Products for mortgage loans don’t look very appealing. The rates are higher than fixed rate mortgages.
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Mar
04
Posted by Mark Clawson
LAS VEGAS FORECLOSURES AND BERNANKE
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today put forth some new ideas on how to prevent homeowners from falling into foreclosure. Bernanke notes that lenders have increased their efforts toward “loss-mitigation” but he believes that more can be done.
He went as far as saying that lenders should “reduce the amount of the loan to provide relief to a struggling owner.” Bernanke stated that “Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.” He indicated that “with low or negative equity in their home, a stressed borrower has less ability — because there is no home equity to tap — and less financial incentive to try to remain in the home.”
This would be a very tough sell to the lenders. Would they be pressured to write down the principal again in the future if housing prices continued to fall? Would the lender then share in any equity increase going forward?Lots of questions, but at least someone is thinking. The lenders are getting hurt due to the loan programs that they made available. The borrower is getting hurt because of a real lack of understanding the loan program that he signed off on.
We should be requiring our high school students to acquire the knowledge necessary to make decisions on home loans, as well as, understanding what and how credit scores work.
On the Mortgage Rate front, rates on 30 year fixed rate conforming loans have stayed pretty much the same. Three and Five Year ARMS are getting much better. It seems as though investors are not so concerned with the short term. They are worried about inflation and they are demanding higher rates on thirty year mortgages for that added risk.Here is a link to Conforming Mortgage rates for today.
Mark V Clawson 702-351-7912
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Feb
22
Posted by Mark Clawson
Thirty year fixed rate mortgage rates in Las Vegas continued to move higher over the past week. What I am seeing is a slight disconnect from the 10 Year Treasury note yield. Changes in fixed rate mortgage rates tend to mirror the movements in the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield. A week ago the 10 year Treasury note yield was at about 3.7% and today it is about the same. However, fixed rate mortgage rates are higher. So, what is happening?There seem to be three factors that are influencing this type of action on rates for fixed rate mortgages.
One, you have uncertainty concerning the impact of the increase in conforming loan limits on mortgage backed securities.
Two, investors are demanding higher returns given the lack of liquidity in the market and the perception that inflation is on the rise.
Three, there is concern over the viability and sustainability of the insurers who guarantee performance on bonds. It’s a crazy market right now.
I still think rates on fixed rate mortgages can go lower since rates are moving down when the stock market has problems. My guess is that we will see the stock market test the lows seen on January 23rd of this year. That number was 11,645.
So, if you are thinking seriously about buying or refinancing your home; you need to plan in advance. On January 23rd of this year fixed rate mortgage rates dropped, for one day, to about 5.25%. That was the day that the market hit 11,645. The next day rates were back to about 5.625%.
If you are prepared to act you might just get lucky. Here is a link to mortgage rates being quoted today. Mark Clawson 702-351-7912
