Archive for the ‘Las Vegas Mortgage Rates’ Category
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Aug
24
Posted by Mark Clawson
Photo courtesy of Sun West Custom Homes in Las Vegas.
The clock is ticking fast for first-time homebuyers. Borrowers are looking at the $8,000 tax credit and trying to make sure that they get it done in time. Here is the link to the article from Reuters.
Photo courtesy of Signature Custom Homes Las Vegas
In refernece to the article above; lets take a look at some of the problems that have been evolving in the appraisal industry. This is very much an issue for new homebuyers since it is taking so long to get appraisals done. Diana Olick, CNBC Real Estate Reporter, talks about how appraisers are threatening The real estate markets recovery.
Photo courtesy of Slade Development in Las Vegas.
Jann Swanson writing in the Mortgage Daily News comments on some stabilization in the housing market. She goes on to say “While the abundance of affordable foreclosure properties is a boon for many first-time homebuyers, I don’t believe we’ll see significant recovery until demand-side fundamentals improve, and more move-up and move-across buyers re-enter the market.” Here is the link to her article.
Photo courtesy of Signature Custom Homes in Las Vegas.
Here is a post from an associate of mine at Kenmore Undressed; Jim talks about some of the consequences of short sales. “The Ugly reality of Short Sales in Your Neighborhood.”
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Aug
17
Posted by Mark Clawson
The September Effect and the Stock Market?
Here we are again, looking at the months of September and October in the stock market. Historically these months are very scary. The summer rally seems to have run it’s course after a 50% run-up from the March lows. The Fed has been pouring money into the markets and that has contributed to the market’s big move. Greenspan did the same on a number of ocassions while he was the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
My gut tells me that we are in for some significant trouble in the weeks ahead. However, the Fed may continue to come to the rescue; unless they feel that they now have some breathing room since the markets have performed so well.
This is really uncharted ground. Do you feel that good about the economy? Are you still worried about your job? I read an article in Esquire magazine about an editor for the magazine looking for a job; even though he had one. Three hundred applications later I think he had one job offer. This does not make me feel comfortable about the economy and it’s ability to create jobs.
The commercial real estate market is going to get much worse and the credit card companies are going to be in big trouble. I guess I don’t see any light in the tunnel.
Our elected officials scare the hell out of me. We are creating a tremendous amount of debt and China seems to be less interested in our Treasury securties. On top of that we have the words “socialism, and nazi” being bantered about. Why do we continue to elect people who care only about getting re-elected. It’s like we hired them to do the job of getting re-elected.
Many will say that it doesn’t matter its just about free enterprise. I think that in many ways certain companies in the free enterprise system have let us down. Greed and instant gratification are not the values that built our system of enterprise.
The real story of this post is about protecting yourself and feeling comfortable. If you have an investment advisor; start asking him or her if there is a way to protect yourself in another market decline. Investors have a short memory of events and its important to remember the last couple of years and to be proactive.
Secondly, you need to take a really hard look at refinancing. An optimistic view of the economy suggests that once this correction plays itself out things are going to change in a big way. The Fed is going to tighten; its just the way that the Fed manages the economy. A negative view going forward is just going to buy you more time to make that decision.
I wrote awhile back that I thought that we could see rates on the 10-Year Treasury note fall to 3-3.2%. They dropped to roughly 3.2% in July for 4 days; I think that we may see a test of that area in the next few weeks (currently we are at about 3.5%).
Be proactive and get in touch with someone that you trust; whether that be an investment advisor or a loan consultant just do it!
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Jul
03
Posted by Mark Clawson
I’m thinking that this is an important time to talk about the stock market and what may happen to mortgage rates. You should know that I spent 25 years in the financial services industry and that many people believed that I was a pretty good technician. Most financial advisors, fundamental or technical, get a good feel for the markets after having watched it for many years; only a few will give you the bad news in advance. Hope you had one of those?
On March 6th the Dow Jones Industrial average fell briefly below 6500; 6469 to be more precise. The high for 2009, on an intra-day basis, was on June 11th when the Dow hit 8877 very briefly. That 37% gain was one of the highest (bear market rally?) since the great depression.
A break below around 8240, Thursday’s close was at 8280, could very easily see the market retrace to the 7700 level. There is a worse scenario and I’ll deal with that later in this post.
Now let’s consider what has been happening to the 10-Year Treasury Note. In the not too distant past you could track mortgage rates by looking at the 10-Year Note. That changed, for a time, when the Fed started buying Mortgage Back Securities. They have pledged to buy $1.25 trillion and they are halfway through that number.
In February the 10-Year Treasury note hit a low of 2.038% and in June the high was 4.174%. That’s a 100% increase; pushed up by green shoots in the economy, a rising stock market, inflation fears, dollar weakness (foreigners don’t want to hold our bonds with a weak dollar) and thoughts that the Fed would tighten.
If you had great credit and very good equity in your home you could have gotten a refinance in February or March at about 4.375%; a couple of weeks ago it would have been around 5.5%, now it’s about 5%.
What’s ahead? If the markets keep falling, oil prices continue dropping, the dollar remains neutral, and inflation fears calm then rates will go lower. I do not expect that we will see 2%; more like 3-3.2% on the 10-Year Note. This should translate into a 30-year fixed rate at about 4.625% – 4.75%; unless the Fed decides to buy a lot more mortgage backed securities.
My suggestion to those people who are looking to refinance or buy a home (first-time homebuyers in particular) is to get moving. The new appraisal laws are slowing the process down; just get the loan application started. You will then be in a position to move forward when you are ready!
I mentioned early in this post that things could get much worse. A friend of mine, Gary Savage, is an extremely astute advisor. I have tracked him over the last year and I’ve been very impressed with his read on the markets. I would like to hope that the market and the economy find a bottom in the next 4-6 months; that may not be the case.
Here is Gary’s read on current events.
Click here
If you want more information about Gary Savage and his Smart Money Tracker services click here.
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Mar
18
Posted by Mark Clawson
I must admit that the mortgage market is getting very crazy and unpredictable. So do we need to be celebrating with a glass of wine and a nice dinner? You can be the judge.
Two weeks ago the thirty year fixed rate mortgage had a note rate of 5.875% and today it is 5.5%. This is good. However, the 3 Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage has gone from a note rate of 4% to 5.625%. This is not good. You can view all of todays conforming rates by clicking here.
My thinking is not nessarily supported in fact, however, I will give you my best read. Long term mortgage rates are pegged, somewhat, to long term Treasury Notes or Bonds. Short term rates don’t have such a mechanism at work. Bankers are having a hard time finding Wall Street investors for their ARM products and with little demand the rates are moving upward. I believe there is concern about home values in the short term. Prices are falling and there is concern about the borrower losing equity in their home. Without a pricing mechanism in place fear is coming into play.
For now, ARM Products for mortgage loans don’t look very appealing. The rates are higher than fixed rate mortgages.
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Mar
04
Posted by Mark Clawson
LAS VEGAS FORECLOSURES AND BERNANKE
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today put forth some new ideas on how to prevent homeowners from falling into foreclosure. Bernanke notes that lenders have increased their efforts toward “loss-mitigation” but he believes that more can be done.
He went as far as saying that lenders should “reduce the amount of the loan to provide relief to a struggling owner.” Bernanke stated that “Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.” He indicated that “with low or negative equity in their home, a stressed borrower has less ability — because there is no home equity to tap — and less financial incentive to try to remain in the home.”
This would be a very tough sell to the lenders. Would they be pressured to write down the principal again in the future if housing prices continued to fall? Would the lender then share in any equity increase going forward?Lots of questions, but at least someone is thinking. The lenders are getting hurt due to the loan programs that they made available. The borrower is getting hurt because of a real lack of understanding the loan program that he signed off on.
We should be requiring our high school students to acquire the knowledge necessary to make decisions on home loans, as well as, understanding what and how credit scores work.
On the Mortgage Rate front, rates on 30 year fixed rate conforming loans have stayed pretty much the same. Three and Five Year ARMS are getting much better. It seems as though investors are not so concerned with the short term. They are worried about inflation and they are demanding higher rates on thirty year mortgages for that added risk.Here is a link to Conforming Mortgage rates for today.
Mark V Clawson 702-351-7912
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Feb
22
Posted by Mark Clawson
Thirty year fixed rate mortgage rates in Las Vegas continued to move higher over the past week. What I am seeing is a slight disconnect from the 10 Year Treasury note yield. Changes in fixed rate mortgage rates tend to mirror the movements in the 10 Year Treasury Note Yield. A week ago the 10 year Treasury note yield was at about 3.7% and today it is about the same. However, fixed rate mortgage rates are higher. So, what is happening?There seem to be three factors that are influencing this type of action on rates for fixed rate mortgages.
One, you have uncertainty concerning the impact of the increase in conforming loan limits on mortgage backed securities.
Two, investors are demanding higher returns given the lack of liquidity in the market and the perception that inflation is on the rise.
Three, there is concern over the viability and sustainability of the insurers who guarantee performance on bonds. It’s a crazy market right now.
I still think rates on fixed rate mortgages can go lower since rates are moving down when the stock market has problems. My guess is that we will see the stock market test the lows seen on January 23rd of this year. That number was 11,645.
So, if you are thinking seriously about buying or refinancing your home; you need to plan in advance. On January 23rd of this year fixed rate mortgage rates dropped, for one day, to about 5.25%. That was the day that the market hit 11,645. The next day rates were back to about 5.625%.
If you are prepared to act you might just get lucky. Here is a link to mortgage rates being quoted today. Mark Clawson 702-351-7912
